Determining bias?

[viper5]

Security man. U know nothing about AP.
U are a descrase of the AP comunity.
Every single post of you about AP is OUT OF TOPIC!
The only thing u know is to make "clicks" to the FFA.I assure u that this ain t AP.
It is ppl like u that make the math system players make a bad name about APers.

Now go and study AP.

[securityman]

As I thought the quistions ,,,,,,,you sim ply avoid them

[forester]

Viper asked me to remove his account which I did.
Anyway I was upset with him ,but i do not like banning people. He was trying to sell 4 years old FFZ which he got as a mercy.
If Manuel with old FFZ gave him and Snows book he is silly.

[Jefra]

Strange is that we do not know anymore who really is Manuel and when we last talked to him, IF we really talked to MAnuel or we maybe talked to Viper who was acting as Manuel.

Ops, here also is Oldtimer, for which noone knows why he came here 

[Toxic]

......So Viper asked to be removed......what about the other 17 of him that is here? 

mmmm........ multiple personality disorder comes to mind...

Difficult to medicate such a person..... take Viper for instance. It wouldn't help to give him a bottle of pills.....you would have to give him 17 bottles...one for each personality! 

Cheers
Toxic

[securityman]

Latest data ..my suspicions seem ti be relised as I can actually see the bias

2nd file is blocks of 500 spins off the monitor

CW ACW to follow ( as soon as I can find the data i entered in both files   aaaaaaaaaaaaaaarg

[doctoritcata]

Hello All,
A question for the maths and bias competent guys - is playing 19 numbers sector showing about 2.5 SD over 1700 spins justified?
I know the sample size is like twice as less as the minimum,but this wheel is looking really battered and feel like  there is stg wrong with it.
Is 2.5 SD enough for giving it a try?Or i need to examine it further and jump in only if i see there is >3, >4 SD?
Thanks!

[lucky_strike]

I got a PM from X complaining about downswings and flucation and in combination with x post i just assume there is not so much of DS.
As i understand it he does like many others just collect data and believe that when they find a 3 or 4 std they have a bias ( that is a false positive ) and could easy make some one to end up in a trap.
Sure there is a way to verify if a 3 or 4 std is due to random fluctuation or not and that is why all this talk about std becomes pseudo and not a actually std that verify if you truly have a bias and that it is not due to random fluctuation.
Should also mention that other common misstake is the belief that pin point out individual numbers all over the wheel will cut it with same bench mark as 3 or 4 std as for a sector bias - so deadly wrong.

[Toxic]

What are the most common telltail signs of a possible  bias wheel? Or should I have asked that in a more secure section?

Cheers
Toxic

[Kelly]

SD does not cut it alone, the Chi Square and the visual bias part must indicate it too. Not to mention, checking if the number ring has not been rotated, which takes the casino roughly 2 - 3 minutes.

 If bias spotting was just collecting numbers, what could possibly be easyer.

[lucky_strike]

7th - 6 Nov CW
Single numbers: you got # 28 as the best number with 2.54 SD and #33 second with a 2.31 SD.

Looking at 3, 5, 7, 10 and 12 pocket sectors, the best bet is at 3 pocket sectors is at #1 with a 2.31 SD for 3 pockets with 1 in center. All sector sizes above that is below 2 SD and is flattening as the sector size grow.

7th Sept - 5th Nov ACW
Single numbers: 17 with a 2.75 SD

Sectors: Best bet is a 5 pocket sector with #2 as center with 2.56 SD The rest is around 2 SD. Slightly above or below.

The full file
Single numbers: #17 with 3.25 SD the rest is at 2SD or below

Sectors; 3 number sectors with #12 in the center and 2.52 SD or  a 5 pocket sector with #2 as center with a 2.47SD.


I can`t make any conclusions, but 17 seems to have had some hits in both directions. Try look a little closer in the 17 area.  #13 and # 34 has some negative SD and could be donating a little bit to 17 but it could also be a pocket bias in #17  if it is not just a coincidence. 1400 spins is not extremely high. Take a closer look at the ball action and if possible, see if you can hear a difference when the ball hits the bottom of the 17 pocket.   Don`t try to sector bet 17, the SD drops rapidly around 17 and pulls the 3 and 5 pocket (with 17 as center) down at 1.3 SD or below.

Did a fun experiment to see if the result would become the same using a wheel signature with sectors of 5.
cw and ccw ...

[Davey-Jones]

Hello All,
A question for the maths and bias competent guys - is playing 19 numbers sector showing about 2.5 SD over 1700 spins justified?
I know the sample size is like twice as less as the minimum,but this wheel is looking really battered and feel like  there is stg wrong with it.
Is 2.5 SD enough for giving it a try?Or i need to examine it further and jump in only if i see there is >3, >4 SD?
Thanks!

Assuming the bias was actually real and and not random, you'd need a monstrous bankroll to handle the fluctuations. Even playing HALF of those numbers can still present problems. I do think the sample size is still pretty small for the amount of numbers you are trying to bet. But that's just me.

[lucky_strike]

Hello All,
A question for the maths and bias competent guys - is playing 19 numbers sector showing about 2.5 SD over 1700 spins justified?
I know the sample size is like twice as less as the minimum,but this wheel is looking really battered and feel like  there is stg wrong with it.
Is 2.5 SD enough for giving it a try?Or i need to examine it further and jump in only if i see there is >3, >4 SD?
Thanks!

Assuming the bias was actually real and and not random, you'd need a monstrous bankroll to handle the fluctuations. Even playing HALF of those numbers can still present problems. I do think the sample size is still pretty small for the amount of numbers you are trying to bet. But that's just me.

Davey mate  you are correct as allways.

Well Caleb is the expert and recording to him you have to track your self to death hehehe  just kidding and with out DS you can track until you die hahaha 

Well there is one soloution witch i like.
First you track a wheel for 800 to 1000 and if the COR is 1 in 100 or the shi 50/55 you can continue to track or skip that wheel.
The bench mark using this strategy with out DS is to collect 3000 and if it holds up you verify the pesudo std with a new sampel of 1500.
That is a total of 4500 and should be pretty safe if you get a "actualy" std and not a "pesudo" std and at least a cor that is 1 in 100.

2,33 - 0,99009692444083600000 - 0,99030755591642500000% - 101

>>>

3 - 0,99865010196837000000 - 0,13498980316301000000% - 741

No way you would play 19 numbers - 2.5 std.

[securityman]

 DAVE plus 1

Doc,,,that would be suicide

try to find something like a 5 number sector or less

Secman

[securityman]

What are the most common telltail signs of a possible  bias wheel? Or should I have asked that in a more secure section?

Cheers
Toxic

What are the most common telltail signs of a possible  bias wheel? Or should I have asked that in a more secure section?

Cheers
Toxic

Maybe not a bad idea to move this to a private section

Question you ask isnt sensitive ,,but the answers could be

Toxic ,,tie up with me on msn

all the best mate

Secman

PS Some posts have been edited

[windmill]

Hi

I'm a newbie and hope that I can help some of you.

My idea of spotting bias. This is for the wheel, single 0

Write numbers from 0 to 26 in a line. Left to right. Mark the amount of number sectors you want to check.
Keep score from top to bottom. On every spin write the number under sector. Between the hits for a sector take last
spin number subtract the last and the you've got a spin amount for hitting sector.

I will use 9 number sector. clock wise from the 0.  The ... are for the numbers between the others. You can even number
the area 1 / 2 / 3 / 4


                0,32, ... 17,34 || 6,27,...23,10 || 5,24,.. 31,9 || 22,18...3,26
1.    14                                                             14
2.    15             15
3.    22                                                                                22
4.    28                                                                                28 {1}
5.    32         32 {3}
6.    19          19  {1}
7.    21            21  {1}
8.    14                                                             14 {7}
9.      6                                  6
10.   31                                                            31 {2}
11.   13                                  13 {2}
12.   19         19 {5}
13.     2          2  {1}
14.    10                                  10 {3}
15.    29                                                                               29{11}
16.    23                                  23 {2}
17.    10                                   10 {1}
18.     9                                                             9 {8}
19.    20                                                            20 {1}
20.   8                                      8 {3}
21.    1                                                                1 {2}
22.   19         19{9}
23.   33                                                              33 {2}
24.    29                                                                               29{9}
25.   0           0 {3}
26.    24                                                              24{3}
27.   20                                                               20 {1}
28.   9                                                                   9 {1}
29.   12                                                                                   12 {5}
30.   25          25 {5}


Will this help for determining bias?

Number and its neighbor seems to hit when the sector hit.


Cheers

[devilish]

Not my place to give advice here.  Just wondering why you would want
to split the wheel into sectors as opposed to calling it one whole sector
and letting any information you collect indicate any possible areas of
interest?

[doctoritcata]

Thank you for the input on my query guys.

It didn't take long to figure it myself that it won't make a good bet to follow those 19 n sector
I did test it for a day with minimal stakes (fortunately the min bet on the inside numbers is as low as 0.0025 euro lol.

At the end of the day I had a loss of just about the expectation on a random bets.

The more I shop around for a beatable Air Ball Machine wheel the more discouraged I get.

Most of the AB machines around do change their rotor speed after NMB is called or
if they do not then the NMB itself is pretty early in the spin (too early even for VB2).

So no ground for VB skills applying except for a HDS which a have had used for a while with reasonable success.

I'm eager to get my head around the causes and reasoning for a biased wheel to be quickly and clearly spotted and labeled as one.

Because almost ALL of the ABM I'm stumbling on are probably being out of  maintenance  for a long while if ever (judging by their overall look,dust,debris et.c.t.)

The way I see it there is no way a wheel in such condition can remain as random as it has to be,so I'm now constantly looking for
clues and "patterns" on the wheel such as if the ball has made a "path" for itself which it likes to travel by more often than it should.

But to be honest I'm beginning to think that for example with sports betting (bonus bagging and arbing) is far more easy to profit and more consistently too.

I have done some bonus bagging for a short while and it worked pretty well,but you need a much bigger bankroll for successful arbing though.

Haven't gave up on roulette yet,no,no 

But it just makes me angry and a bit desperate when while truing my best all I can do is just break even or worse for a long period of time now.
 

[Davey-Jones]

No one ever said it would be easy! Everyone one of us have been super frustrated at one time or another. You can't be an AP without perseverance, they go hand in hand.