Intro to Biased Wheels--- Part 2

[toby]

BIASED WHEALS AND THE OTHERS WININ SYSTEMS, HAVE THIS BEHAVIOR IN DAYS, AND IN LONG TERM.
HERE IS A 12 DAYS OF PLAY, AND HAVE POSITIVE PEAKS AND DRAMATICALY NEGATIVE PEAKS, IF I PLAY DECRESIONS OR PROGRESIONS IM GOING TO LOSSE.



THE RANDOM IS NOT GOOD PLAYED IN SHORT TERM.
IF I THINK MATHEMATICAL,  KELY CRETERIA THERE WE PROBABELY HAVE AN EDGE, BUT REAL PLAY IS ANOTHER THING, THE ROULLETE IS MATHEMATICAL BLINDED.

IF YOU WANT TO PLAY KELY CRETERIA, TO MY IS OK, IS NOT MY MONEY.

TOBY:
DO YOU REALY PLAY ROULETTE OR YOU ARE A DESK PLAYER?
WERE YOU PLAY?
What system do you play?
BEST REGARDS
UCHIMATA

I spend 8 hs a day in the casino, I do not know when this wheel will be shuffled.

You know where I am from, it is not wise to tell where the wheel is.

I win 5% of the total waged.

Example: 150 per spin, I win 210 every 36 spins(average) played(1 hour).

When you have an edge the casino can not win if you manage your money conciently.

Maths are in your favor.

I do not play a system, I flatbet now. The Kelly criterion helps not to risk more than it has to be and allows us to win more.

Bad steak always come but in the end we suceed.

[Kelly]

Good grief...... i`ll try to take them one at a time.

1. KC is not designed for 1:1 bets. It can be applied to anything, even the stock market.

2. 13% was the edge in the simulation, and you don`t know when you have a drawdown. I wrote that after 300 spins, your bankroll was down to 6500, which means that there is a bad streak here. There are plenty of bad streaks in the simulation.

3. Im not sure what kind of edge you expect to have if you bet 20% of your bankroll. With a 13% edge on a 5 number sector, you bet ~2%  of your bank.

4. I can understand that some people might find it diffycult to calculate the bet size, but if you know your bankroll when you start, and you have pre made a betting scheme, all you need to do is to keep an eye on the total bankroll  and look in the scheme once every 20 minutes. You don`t need a calculator in the casino.

5. For the 10th time, all progressions fail long term with a negative edge. With an edge of say 13% the situation is reversed, you are still only making 13% with the KC, only, you make a higher turnover at the table which results in more money in your pocket. But still the same edge. Forester just wrote the same thing to you. No one implys that the progression gives a higher edge.

6. Im sure a bias over 12 to 19 pockets is a great play, i just haven`t found one yet, so i will have to settle for less. A rotor wobble doesn`t mean that an entire half wheel becomes noticeable bias just because 1/2 the wheel goes up and then 1/2 the wheel goes down.  I have an excel sheet that calculates the bias in 1, 3, 5, 7 and 12 number sectors. In all wheels so far, wheen we come to the 12 number sector, the Standard deviation is below 2 even if we started out with 2 - 5 numbers that had 4.5 SD.

7. Uchimata, im sure i can write from now on to eternity without being able to change your mind so lets just stop here. Flat bet is an okay way to play if you have an edge.

[Kelly]

Bet size calculation for 5 numbers and a 13% edge.
(35 – 4)/5
A = 31/5 =  6.2  It will then give the formula
f* = 13%/ 6.2 = 2.09 %

10000 bankroll x 2% = 200 which was the initial bets for both flat bet and the KC

Trust me, you won`t be flat betting 200 at spin 2500 and your bankroll is grown from 10000 to 60000. You will have raised your bets, so in a sense a progression is applied although its a very flat version.

PS: I would have put this into the post above but i get the message "time limit for editing has been....." so there are a time limit for editing. Thats why i can`t edit the post in Bruces wheel.

[forester]

Ok, thanks, it was 15 min, now it is one day for editiong.

[toby]

How does weather affect a biased wheel?

Is it the same the time you play, such as early in the morning or in the evening?

Does humidity, hot or cool enviroment modify the outcomes?

It is important to take note of the hour or weather when you clock a wheel?

[mikemcbain]

G'day Toby

We record Barometric Pressure, nearest Tide situation and current Moon show and although we sometimes find good correlation between wheel behaviour and especially Ball bounce and scatter the jury is still out on declaring the bias effect.

I have no doubt that short and dumpy croupiers are much more erratic than tall long limber croupiers or that lower temperatures in the room and a warm blooded warm hand croupiers are more consistent than higher room temperatures (generally crowded). Also beware the consistency of right handed croupiers spinning with their left hand as dictated by some croupiers on certain tables.

And probably over riding all of these factors is the effect of players leaning heavily on sections of the table that cause a variable bias on the wheel.

Keep on winning

Mike.

[Kelly]

Toby, you should keep an eye on the pressure. It doesn`t change the bias at all but most biases is  correlated to the scatter on the wheel and the air pressure might well change the angle by which the ball strikes the rotor and it MIGHT have an impact on your numbers. I would certainly always note the air pressure when it changes. Try it out, you  might find a correlation between the number strenght and the air pressure. There is no need to play with high stakes during bad conditions where the number strenght appears weak and you already knew it would be like that because you had measured it upfront.

[toby]

Toby, you should keep an eye on the pressure. It doesn`t change the bias at all but most biases is  correlated to the scatter on the wheel and the air pressure might well change the angle by which the ball strikes the rotor and it MIGHT have an impact on your numbers. I would certainly always note the air pressure when it changes. Try it out, you  might find a correlation between the number strenght and the air pressure. There is no need to play with high stakes during bad conditions where the number strenght appears weak and you already knew it would be like that because you had measured it upfront.

How do you measure the air pressure?

When is it better, when it is high or low pressure?

[Kelly]

Just buy a watch like the climbers use. Casio or something else, it doesnt have to be a state of the art watch.

There are difference in the opinions on which is best. A high air pressure will make the ball drop sooner on a semi tiltet wheel and with higher speed, resulting in a slightly longer bounce that will give more travel on the pockets. Which is good for pocket bias. But some of the most lucrative wheels that were ever played, payed best off with a low air pressure.  The experts on the subject is kind of against each other on the subject. My own experience in that department is in VB play only. 

[toby]

Just buy a watch like the climbers use. Casio or something else, it doesnt have to be a state of the art watch.

There are difference in the opinions on which is best. A high air pressure will make the ball drop sooner on a semi tiltet wheel and with higher speed, resulting in a slightly longer bounce that will give more travel on the pockets. Which is good for pocket bias. But some of the most lucrative wheels that were ever played, payed best off with a low air pressure.  The experts on the subject is kind of against each other on the subject. My own experience in that department is in VB play only.

What I guess is that cool or cold environment make the ball bounce more than usual.

Hot weather(low pressure) slower ball speed so it is not recommended to stake higher on wheels that are supposed biased in their pockets.

High pressure(cool weather) enables a good time for biased pockets.

How do I know if it is a pocket defect or any other?

What I guess is that the wood in the middle of the wheel is the part that lead what numbers are favoured because of the wood edges where the ball stops.

Did I get it?

[annejackman]

Wow! That's really interesting. You have done a lot of research on this. I look forward to more such interesting studies.

[Dr.Spock]

happy labor day weekend to all!!!     

I am happy to announce that I will be looking to get back in mix this fall... see you all soon...

GLTA...   

[securityman]

Man Dr Spock  truely A blast from the past ,yes a ray of light dawns on the darkside 

And Ill have another  Bias Buddy for yours truely 

always wondered what happened to some of the original CREW

Look forward to you coming back to the forum as an active member and hope to learn from you if not each other ,,As I see you seemed to be cut off in your thread mid flight,,please continue Spock ,,,,,,,but I must say that there is a little too much for public viewing here but maybe we can get this fixed

regards Securityman

[forester]

Hey Mr.