0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.
Yes, I only made it to compare what would be the difference. Sure, more risk = more winnings.
Quote from: Forester on February 27, 2009, 07:35:11 AMYes, I only made it to compare what would be the difference. Sure, more risk = more winnings. CONCLUTION :MORE RISK MORE WINNINGS, AND MORE RISK MORE LOOSINGS OR NOW?IN A FEW WORDS, DON´T WORK , OR YES?THE PROBLEM IS """""""""LONG TERM""""""""""""AND NO ONE SAID WHAT TIPE OF PROGRESION WORK IN LONG TERM, IF SOME BODY KNOWS WHAT TIPE OF PROGRETION ELIMINATE THE HOUSE EDGE IN LONG TERM, PLEASE TELL ME.BEST REGARDS.UCHIMATA
Only infinite progression can eliminate house advantage. The question was how to play if you already have an advantage.
Uchimata, no one suggests that the advantage is in the progression or money management. The advantage should always be in the bet selection, triggered by physical parameters.But in the advantage players game HE has the edge and his capital will have some sort of growth depending on his edge and his skills. To get maximum growth with maximum safety, Kelly is the best way to do it. You can have a faster growth with less safety, but will also be more likely to get some hits to your bankroll that was unnesscary. The players bankroll might have a value of 1 and the casinos bank, a value of 200 compared to the players. Even with an edge, a fluctation can wipe out the advantage player if he don`t have some sort of management that tells him to only bet small money in the bad streaks and big money when he is winning. The mathematical proof is herehttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kelly_criterionIf the edge is negative the formula for Kelly betting don`t work, basicly you get the message "don`t bet", because the value you should bet is negative. Meaning the casino should place bets at your place in stead.
You don`t NEED to play with the Kelly Criteria, but you will end up with a lot more money than if you didn`t and in the unthinkable bad streaks you hits (and you WILLLLLL hit those) you will feel a lot better because your bets will slowly be smaller and smaller.A simulation with the Kelly Criteria, shows that if you play a 5 number sector with a 13.5% edge and a 10.000 bankroll your bank will develop like this with and without the KC.If you flat bet 40$ pr number, 200$ pr. spin, your bank will develop like this:100 spins 15200 $500 spins 122001000 spins 256001500 spins 390002000 spins 454002500 spins 588003000 spins 73600If you use the Kelly Criteria, starting out with the same amount: 10.000$ bankroll and 40$ pr. number (200 pr spin) it looks like this100 spins 14650$500 spins 74001000 spins 152001500 spins 287502000 spins 301002500 spins 665003000 spins 147350NOTE: In this case the KC was a slow starter, and the flat bet came off to a better/faster start, but in real life we cannot know that. The +--+--etc. streak was equal for both scenarios. Both streaks had the same amount of hits placed in the same places. Bottom line is, that the KC player could pocket 147350 (minus the initial 10 K) and the flat better could pocket 73600 (minus the initial 10K). The KC player had higher bets at some time but also lower than the flat better, but the KC player never risked more than 5% of his bankroll in a spin. Never. The worst case were at spin 300 where the KC players bank were 6500 and the flat betters 8500. There were some heavy drawdowns for the KC player between spin 2500 and 3000 but at this point the bets were aiming for the table limits and obviously the losses are also bigger at this point.
Toby: i understand,what are you saying, but i´m not agry whith you in this:For example your bank roll is 200 chips, and in the first bet you put the 20% of this amount,the amount is 40 chips, and your bank roll know is 160 chips, then160*20%=32 chips128*20%=25.6 chips108*20%=21.6 chips86.40*20%=17.28 chips69.12*20%=11.04if you don´t have a wining bet in 6 spins you rigt here have a problem, ¿WHY?for example if you are playing 15 numbers, Were are you taking the rest of the chips to bet the next bet?The loosing strikes in roulette, are more than 6 bets, my friend.If you are shure you are coming to win in the next 6 spins is better to use martingale, Dont do you think that?For example if you are playing whith plain bets , playing 15 numbers, you play 13 spins, waiting to a good high peak.Please expalin me this.The good peaks and the bad peaks come in agruped periods, random actuate like this.If you are playing biased wheals, you are waiting the wheal overcome the house edge whith flat bets, like random, the random is plain, not progresive or "DECRESIVE", house edge is 2.7 in all moment, the wheal don´t need to progresionate this 2.7 or decrease this 2.7 to win you, the wheal are based in the random and in some cases in the deeler avility to search numbers. a biased wheal overcome the house edge whith the bad function of the wheal, you dont need to risk, playin higer or lower bets, you only need a good wheal conditon.Do you know what is the wors part of a gambler? the ambision.Best regards Uchimata
Playing what?Were you obtain the 13% edge?How you know this 13%edge are coming more or less in the next spins?You need 10,000 units to play every day?how is your bank roll every day?the kelly creteria is designed to play 18/1 bets.best regards Uchimata
Author
Topic: Intro to Biased Wheels--- Part 2 (Read 6130 times)
