Intro to Biased Wheel Attacks

[Kelly]

Asuming you find a bias that is.

The edge can be between 3 - 10% and they can`t really counter you if you play it smart.  Early NMB doesn`t matter. Dealer change doesn`t matter.

The bias is spotted by the eye first and later confirmed with the numbers, not the other way round. Depending on the scatter type on the wheel/ball combination, you might be able to add some percent to the edge with simple dealers signature (pocket counting) or better, VB.

Its not a game for a 1 man army playing with 20$ chips, its a whole different kind of breed of people who play this kind of game and the chip size is a bit out of the ordinary.

I can`t recommend bias play to the average player, even if the wheel was pointed out to him. He will need to be able to see the bias and be aware if the bias has not been fixed or moved or the number ring has been rotated so the bias is now 5 pockets away from the numbers he plays.

Asuming you find a bias that is......   

[forester]

If bias is created as explained with rotor deformation, then only something as 10% of spins may be affected. If the ball is coming vertically towards rotor 10-90 deg. it really wouldn't matter because it wouldn't be affected.
From 10% of possibilities when scatter is applied it wouldn't overcome house advantage.


If I predict and play every spin randomly and play every tenth with advantage knowing where the ball will hit rotor, if amount of bet is same, it still wouldn't give any advantage since 90% is played with 2.7 negative expectations.
 

[minerox]

great post kelly

forester we know that you are an engineer and we will be gentle with you

as explained earlier bais play takes many parts and everyboby has a part to play  first find the bais then clock the numbers then bring on the players

many parts a few people

lets assume to have a bais wheel

how does one state the advantage

we use a hit rate say one in 25 or one in 20 or up to one in 32 depending on bais


our numbers or sectors might not hit for 50,100 spins but because the bais is real we know that it will hit, it may be that the minerox theory has some part
in all of this or some other conditions are happening ie cleaning ect,ect


i donot believe it is as simple as a engineering problem and has a straight ans

mabey snowman or mike can explian it better



btw why all you people veiwing this forum at this time and not out working or something

minerox
mtmatssoy


 

[Dr.Spock]

Dr. Spock,

The equipment sounds cool.

In what part of the US do you live?  Are you actively playing these days?

I'm in the US too.

Snowman, I am an hour drive from the Casinos in Atlantic city, NewJersey.  The wheel speeds are pretty fast. the average speed is between 1.5 to 2 seconds per rotation.

My background the last 25 years is actually playing the craps tables. To be very honest, I just started focusing all my attention on the Roulette Wheel 4 months ago when I joined myrulet.com.  However, the good news is that I am a fast learner and their is nothing standing in my way from devoting 16 hours a day studying the game of roulette, IF THAT'S WHAT IT TAKES TO BE ON THE WINNING SIDE. 

AND SINCE I AM OFFICIALLY RETIRED- - - AND DO NOT HAVE TO GET A JOB EVER AGAIN IN THIS LIFETIME- - - UNLESS I'M OFFERED A POSITION AS CROUPIER AT THE ROULETTE TABLES IN A/C WHICH I'LL TAKE IN A HEART BEAT, MEANS I HAVE ALL DAY AND NIGHT-  - 7 DAYS A WEEK TO STUDY AND EXPLOIT THE WHEELS IN ATLANTIC CITY FOR BIASES.   



     

 

[forester]

I do not have problem understanding that it may be a job for few people that it may take thousands of spins etc.
I only have simple question how advantage can be created.
How rotor deformation can produce enough to overcome house advantage if only small percentage of spins is affected with it. 

Depending on the scatter type on the wheel/ball combination, you might be able to add some percent to the edge with simple dealers signature (pocket counting) or better, VB.

From all of that I can accept only VB but in the case if there is pocket bias.
For example VB predicts zero and we know that ball likes to stop more at #3 so we actually can shift centre of prediction to #3 .
But that is only if pocket is biased and nothing to do with rotor tilt.
We can't expect good VB prediction, short cut by diamond and at same time that the rotor edge would affect the ball.

[Kelly]

Forester i can`t blame you for having your opinion, because it is identic with a lot of peoples opinions.  I can prove that you are wrong on the edge topic and also  on the rotor tilt/deformation topic but i would breach my confidence code and maybe put a red flag up that could cost "someone" i know a lot of money in lost opportunitys. And its not pocket money lost. Its the money that pays the mortgage.

Obviously, a rotor wobble is more effective when the ball is having action on the rotor. An old french Caro wheel with a bounce of 5 pockets is probably only good for a pocket bias. If there is a rotor wobble, it will interfere in every 6th spin approx. also on The Old Caro, and it might be good enough to beat the house, because you will still have a donator and a receiver sector.

To understand the power in a rotor wobble, you need to see how it works and why the math is actually giving you a helping hand along with the physics. Would +12 SD in 4400 spins tracked the correct way convince you ? If the casino did it the same way, the manager would shut the wheel down, only....., they don`t....They can counter such a wheel with a slow wheel speed like 6 - 9 sec. pr. rev, because for the wobble to be effective the ball needs travel lenght on the rotor or the number ring. On a 3 sec rotor speed and a normal bouncing nylon ball and normal low fret wheel, there will be action in the danger zone in at least 50% of all spins. Either in the actual zone or in one of the marginal zones.

Bias versus VB is actually a more sensitive subject than expected, because if you ask yourself: Will the bias overpower the VB prediction ? On a biased wheel it is not as if the next door neighbour to the biased number is never hit, because it IS, just not as often.

Here is a sample of a, i think,  long gone wheel. 18.000 spins.

488 hits (+0.47 SD)
539 hits (+2.84 SD)
604 hits (+5.85 SD)
564 hits (+4.00 SD)
592 hits (+5.30 SD)
557 hits (+3.67 SD)
453 hits (-1.15 SD)

For safety i have left the actual biased numbers out, but imagine that a VB prediction gave you a prediction of the number that has a -1.15 SD value (for simplicity here we imagine that you only bet 1 number). Would you bet the neighbour number next or next next to it with the high positive SD values   ? It is not as if the negative biased number is never hit, its just not as often, but will the VB overpower the bias or vice versa ?

There is a way to get round this little problem but it is more complicated than you at first sight would think, and its not for public display just yet. Maybe never.

[forester]

It has nothing to do with opinion or right/wrong.
I only ask questions and try to find reasons.
I estimated 1:10 of spins could be effected, you say 1:6.
1:10 is only my general picture of what is happening.
Perhaps it could be 1:6 but it depends on what you look and by which intensity the ball would be effected.
The ball may enter rotor lower part with different speeds of last rotation therefore exiting point may be there and hit rotor close to that  but it may be at any point as well  even the ball was effected by rotor wobble.

Let's say that it is 1:6.
If we play 222 spins.
185 spins will not be affected.
If we play only 3 pockets it will be 3x185=555 units
We will win (185/37=5)x36x3=540

Those 185 spins we lose 15 units 555-540=15

With remaining 37 spins
By playing 3 pockets we will use 111 units
We should get back 108 another 3 units loss.

But we need to make from those 37 spins
108 +3 + 15 +36=162

36 is to get an extra hit and 3 +5 is to overcome losses because of house advantage.
162/36=4.5 hits

We play 3 pockets therefore 4.5/3=1.5

To have win of 36 units on 222 spins we would need on 1/6 of spins to have hit rate of 1:24.6.  ~ 1:25

It means playing about 11 hours Total turn over 222x$300=$66,600
to win $3600 by placing 3x$100 per spin.
Profit  5.4 %

It looks as possible but the player needs to be sure since he can easily be without single hit for 50 spins, and that brings him down by$15,000.

The question is can wobble create 1:25 on those effected spins.
It is hard to estimate it but if you say so I believe.
As you say after many spins it should show if there is advantage, but in reality all you need to do is to analyze spins where the ball may be affected.
If I estimate from affected 37 spins probably half will end up everywhere, but half may exit close to expected number, and scatter law may be less random.

My experience with bias.
I do have one wheel which has dominant ball exit point so I play it as tilt.
But when ball is traveling in opposite direction something as 50% of spins turn in to spinners. Is rotor wobbled I do not know but I noticed that on many occasions when ball is going in that direction it stops around 22 while on faster rotor it is more on 7.
I did benefit from that few times, but in between there was and times where I lost playing that way. Since my play is something as 50-60 spins, it may be just normal.
Such high percentage of spinners if rotor is wobbled may be good to investigate.
I will look more in to it.

To Mike,
I never asked you did you ever find reason what has happened with 12,000 spins when it was showing huge advantage but when you start playing everything went wrong.

[Kelly]

Its hard to explain in details without going into details  but a rotor wobble is wide bias. Its not just a 3 - 7 pocket thing, also, think about it, its the whole rotor that goes up and down. Which means that in that part of the wheel where it goes down that is not the only bias, there will also be an uneveness on other parts of the wheel at that moment which means that the ball is affected on a lot of parts of the rotor.

That means that actually all spins is affected, but when i said 1:6 i mean on a wheel with hardly any bounce at all. The ball drops, bounces 5 - 6 pockets and thats it.  Normally we see the ball travel between 8 - 32 pockets, sometimes more than a full revoloution and here there may be 75% of all spins affected. Like i said, they can counter it with a slow rotor, but then one might just swap to regular VB if there is a rough idea of the drop zone.

If the wheel is tilted and also has a rotor wobble, you will find the bias even stronger.

Normally you will map the wheell out with potential biased numbers/sectors and secondary biased numbers. Wether the biased parts under observation is either donators or receivers, you might or might not be able to tell right away. But if nothing out of the ordinary is happening in the sectors we target, we might just skip the wheel after a short while, no need for extensive and labour costly number following.

[mikemcbain]

Forester

When we looked back at that wheel after more than 15,000 clocked spins I think from memory we found three periods where the single heavily biased number (3 - 4 standard deviations I think it was) suddenly began to fail to show at 1:37 for a period of several hundred spins and then it reverted back to its heavy bias every time and still to this day although its not in constant use now.

We never found the reason.

We were sure the wheel hadn't been properly cleaned because before and after one of the downturns there was dust and a tiny piece of paper in one pocket.

The ball drop off point hadn't changed and it was heavily tilted perhaps 7:10 striking the same diamond and that didn't change.

There was no obvious rotor wobble or deformation using Snowman's detection methods.

We cannot explain those three occasions by Minerox's theory and the Staff were totally disinterested so we are sure they weren't manipulating it.

To me it is still a mystery and I have put it into my little bag of experiences that can only be explained as

"whatever you think can't happen and won't happen will happen".

That's the McBain Theory of Roulette Results Behaviour.

[forester]

Kelly
How can the ball be effected by wobbling rotor if it is coming with sharp angle towards rotor. Change lifting up rotor level by 0,1 mm wouldn't make any difference.
With 1/6 I thought you talking about balls which would spin at the rotor edge then fail down when rotor level drops.

Mike, I am trying to find reasons what could cause advantage.
If as Kelly says ball exit is wider then I thought then it wouldn't produce needed advantage. And spins where the ball is not spinning in parallel with the edge wouldn't be affected at all.

whatever you think can't happen and won't happen will happen

i would add BAD somewhere in that sentence.

[Kelly]

Im not gonna reveal the standards for when a wobble is big enough to create a bias that beats the house, but there are known and accepted standards. How the ball is affected is easyli understood when you map the wheel and map the wobble and check the number distribution where you expect the ball to run upwards and where you expect it to run downwards. But im moving in troubled waters and should probably be quiet.

[minerox]

hey forester

mate a short holiday is in order

you need to catch up with kelly or snow so as to fully understand what is happening



cheer

minerox

mtmatssoy

[forester]

[Snowman]

Dr. Spock,

[mikemcbain]

Forester said...

i would add BAD somewhere in that sentence.

But I don't agree because for example if a number has hit four times in a row then I will always back the next numbers that double spin to also show four times in a row. So for me thats GOOD.

That's why last week when 13 double spun twice in half an hour and then showed up again shortly after I really plonked it to double spin for the third time and it did much to everyone else's amazement at the table including the croupier and pit boss.

Just expect the unexpected to happen and you will find that it does so much more frequently than 1:37.

Keep winning

Mike.

[Snowman]

Here's a neat trick for you to track Mike.

I'm assuming that you still have all of your data.

Track how many times each number has hit 3 times or more within 20 spins.  The hits don't have to be back to back.

Plot the results on a graph.

Compare that to the long term data on your wheel.

[forester]

When I played only single number maximum table limit and I win 3 spins in a row that is expected.

But when in 10 spins 5 times the ball stops where I did not place chip 3 times one or two pockets from my sector , once right in middle but dealer called NMB to early and once where I placed the smallest amount. That is unexpected and it is bad.

[mikemcbain]

Forester

No that is just the "Sh*t happens" factor!

Snowman

That is similar to my own modified RWD strategy which I play regardless of everything else even the FFA prediction, it is always my first bet.

I have been the greatest fan of this strategy since the first year it was released.

Mike.

Roy Ward Dickson said a playable hot number is...

a. One that has not come up for at least thirty consecutive spins. ie. 30 spins or more never less.

b. One that after such an "establishing period of absence" finally came up.

c. And which did so twice more during the next 19 spins or less, subject to the special exceptions below.

That is three shows in 20 spins or less after an absence of 30 spins or more.

SPECIAL EXCEPTIONS.
A number is NOT playable if it comes up three times in a row.
A number is NOT playable if the DIFFERENCE in the 'gap' between the first-and-second appearance and the 'gap' between the second-and-third appearances consists of more than six.

Say the qualifying numbers' initial two shows were on the first and seventh spins, that is a 'gap' of 6 and the third qualifying show came up on the 19th spin, that is a 'gap' of 12 spins, then the DIFFERENCE  in the 'gaps' of 6 & 12 = 6. The number is playable!

Again, suppose the initial two shows are on the first and third spins, that is a 'gap' of 2 and the third show is on the twelveth spin, that is a 'gap' of 9, so the DIFFERENCE in the'gaps' of 2 & 9 = 7. The number is unplayable!

Another example, suppose the initial two shows are on the first and tenth spins, that is a 'gap' of 9 and the third show is on the twentieth spin, that is a 'gap' of 10, so the DIFFERENCE in the'gaps' of 9 & 10 = 1. Playable!
 
BETTING STRATEGY.
Back a playable qualifying number for UP TO 9 spins NOT counting spins where zero shows.

Of course zero itself can qualify to be playable.

Bet one unit on the first to the sixth playable spin and two units on the seventh to the ninth playable spin.

If the string of nine bets all fail to achieve a win stop betting that number immediately.

Stop backing that number immediately a bet wins, that is the hot number shows for the fourth time.

As soon as one such playable hot number bet has won stop that playing session at that wheel, even if it was your first bet. No more bets that day at that wheel.

Should three successive playable strings each of nine bets all lose stop that playing session at that wheel.

If you have lost two strings of nine bets and are playing a third when a second number qualifies as playable DON'T commence betting on it. Either you win your currently active string and walk or you walk away after losing three consecutive strings of nine anyway.

[Kelly]

How could bias player have idea where the ball will hit, to know will it go upwards or downwards?
 
 

He won`t have to know when and where it hits. The  ball has no trouble running downwards but it always meets resistence when running upwards, which means that some numbers won`t receive as many hits as others and that imbalance triggers a positive and a negative bias.

[Dr.Spock]

How could bias player have idea where the ball will hit, to know will it go upwards or downwards?
 
 

He won`t have to know when and where it hits. The  ball has no trouble running downwards but it always meets resistence when running upwards, which means that some numbers won`t receive as many hits as others and that imbalance triggers a positive and a negative bias.

Interesting point kelly. 

At times it appears that the way a ball scatters might even leave clues as to what type of rotor bias we are dealing with.  For example, on certain wheels based on certain wheel speeds, I notice the ball tends to jump when it hits a particular number at  a particular angle.  As a result - - - AFTER THE BALL ITS THIS PARTICULAR NUMBER, the ball will either go forward within  +8 pockets - - - or the ball will bounce backwards within a -8 pockets OF THIS PARTUCULAR NUMBER ALMOST EVERY SINGLE TIME.  IF THIS IS A TRUE THEORY WHICH I AM STILL TESTING, THAN WE HAVE A 17 NUMBER HOT SPOT THAN CAN GO UNDER THE RADAR, SINCE IT'S DEALER DEPENDENT BASED ON CERTAIN WHEEL SPEEDS,  AND ONLY HAPPENS WHEN IT HITS A CERTAIN POCKET AT A CERTAIN ANGLE.  " WHICH MEANS THAT WHEN THE CASINO TESTS THE WHEEL THIS TYPE OF BIAS WOULD GO UNDETECTED.

Kelly is this something similiar to what you were referring to, when you mentioned in an earlier statement that you FIRST notice the bias with your eyes? Than you later confirm it with the wheel tracking?

DEAR KELLY...  Could you please answer that question, ASAP - -  so I can delete this post considered I probably said too much all ready - -  and don't want to blow anyones cover...   

THANKS A MILLION   



 

[Myrulet-admin]

Dr Spoke,

Take all spins from tilted wheel, measure scatter on left and right from center where is tilt
It is definitely more up hill and down hill then wobbled rotor .
If small wobble produces few SD then tilt should produce huge difference in between 2 results.


Compare results

[Dr.Spock]

myrulet,

You raise a good point.  based on my Studies, I see that many different defects, or a combination of events, could cause biased-wheel sectors  and/or pockets.

SUCH AS:

1) slightly bent central spindle
2) warped wheel head
3 unevenly worn ball tracks
4) tilted Wheel
6) Balls that are not perfectly rounded
7) Balls that are not perfectly balanced
certain temperatures
9) certain rotor speeds
10) certain times of the day
11) dusty wheel
12) someone leaning against the table
13) air pressure
14) worn down pocket not noticeable by the human eye
15) scratches on the rotor

It can get very cumbersome trying to keep track of all the potential variables that may influence the data and the conditions surrounding these variables.   BUT THE BOTTOM LINE IS, It's possible one wheel can be influenced by several of these factors listed above in such a way that such a biased wheel can go undetected for months, even years.

Me personally, I would never sit through 10 thousand or not even 5 thousand spins. I THINK IT'S TOTALLY REDICULOUS TO JUST RANDOMLY PICK A WHEEL AND SPEND 2 MONTHS TESTING IT FOR 10 THOUSAND SPINS,
I NEED EVIDENCE FIRST.

I believe in the main theory "that the way a certain ball scatters on a certain wheel - - based on a certain wheel speed- -  hitting the rotor at a certain angle - --will leave behind certain clues - - -.  Not only that, but a possible bias that can be narrowed down from 1 to 3 numbers on  that subject wheel. 

The reason why 5 thousand to 10 thousand spins are needed for a biased wheel attacker is because they have to test all 37 or 38 numbers.  Me on the other hand, If I have all ready limited my target area to 1 or 2 nuumbers - -  LETS SAY 1 NUMBER FOR THIS ARGUMENT- - than I will finish my testing 37 times faster, since I do not have to test the other 36 numbers.  WHICH MEANS MY BIASED WHEEL TESTING WILL BE ON THE AVERAGE OF 37 TIME FASTER THAN THE ATTACKER THAT HAS TO COLLECT A STUDY OF 5000 SPINS 

5000 DEVIDED BY 37 NUMBERS = 135 SPINS NEEDED IN MY STUDY TESTING JUST 1 NUMBER.

so the formula is

(1 number being tested) times  (135 spins)=  135 spins needed

however if I had to test all 37 numbers, we use this formula

(37 numbers) times  ( 135 spins) =  4995 spins needed to properly test for a biased wheel with all 37 numbers.


Since 80 to 85% of all biased are tied directly to the rotor,  it would make a lot of since to first pinpoint a possible problem area on the rotor, than run a biased wheel test for that particular section or number. that way, you could be all done the biased test in a fast as 135 spins, INSTEAD OF HAVING TO SIT OR STAND THROUGH 5000 SPINS. 

PERSONALLY, I JUST THINK IT'S VERY STUPID TO JUST WALK UP TO A WHEEL AND RANDOMLY START TESTING ALL 37 NUMBER WITH NO PRIOR KNOWLEDGE OR EVIDENCE.  that would take atleast 250 hours, or just over 1 month to complete working at it 8 hours a day. 

It wouldn't work in a real casino environment, since the wheel maintenance crew would have changes the dynamics on that wheel, once they are done rotating the wheel.  However, the way I 'm talking about, if someone is good enough to locate a possible wheel biased to a certain pocket, AND JUST NEED TO TEST IF TO SEE IF THEY ARE RIGHT OR WRONG - - -than only 135 rolls are needed for the entire study for just that 1 pocket- - - too see if the tests hold up. 

I know that those will argue with me, that its impossible to test 1 single for number for bias in only 135 spins.  the fact is, if one gets effIcient enough to just become a scatter expert, and just watch the same wheel to locate a single pocket bias,  IT'S POSSIBLE THEY BECOME SO EFFICIENT AT IT THAT THEY DO NOT EVEN NEED TO PROCEED TO STEP 2- - - WHICH IS TEST THAT SINGLE NUMBER FOR BIAS - - BECAUSE IF WE ALL READY KNOW THE BALL WILL GO either  +8 OR -8 POCKETS FORM THAT TARGET NUMBER after it bounces from that particular angle,  WE WOULD JUST PLAY ALL 17 NUMBERS BASED ON A CERTAIN WHEEL SPEED ONLY - - and just be a spectator if the wheel speed is to fast or to slow which would alter the way the ball bounces in that particular angle we are looking for.

Another slick maneuver is to just walk around a casino and find a rotor with unusual scratch marks ON THE ROTOR - - the question is how did those scratch marks get there?  It could be from several reasons.  remember, it takes a lot of force to put a scratch a piece of metal.  A force great enough to cause a possible Bias worth looking into.  The wheel could have been tampered with, dropped, or just a sign that it's getting worn out based on the scratch marks.  You never know until you run a preliminary test, or do like me - -  see if the ball reacts a certain way during the scatter process, whenever it comes  or bounces near the scratch marks on the rotor.

The kind of SH_ _ I'm telling you, you won't find in a biased wheel book anywhere on the market - -  because I believe those books just have general stuff in it you can find anywhere online. I ALSO BELIEVE THAT NO EXPERT ACTUALLY TELLS YOU EVERYTHING THEY KNOW.  NOT EVERYTHING... THEY TEND TO KEEP THEIR BEST WORK AND SECRETS TO THEMSELVES.

[Snowman]

Yes rotor wobble can cause some bias, depending on the wheel model and degree of wobble. 

However, most biases are not caused by rotor wobble, or scratches.

Roulette balls don't cause bias, just noise.

Worn ball tracks don't cause number bias, just dominant drops. 

I guess you could argue that a worn ball track causes a drop location bias.

[Kelly]

1. Bend spindle causes a wobble.
2. Is a bias in itself.
3. Can cause a dropzone that might add edge to another bias.
4. Same
6. Correct, nothing except a pain in the ace for a VB er.
7. Same
8. Can affect a known bias situation.
9. Slow rotor speed makes the ball travel less on the rotor, not a bias, just worse condition.
10. .....?
11. Correct, also grease from the dealers hands.
12. Well, tilt i guess.
13. Has same effects as in VB.
14. Depends on the kind wear, but it can create pocket bias.
15. The scratch itself probably not a lot, but the scratch indicates that something has been going on and there might be a bias in that area.

As snow points out, the wobble is only 1 possible bias and maybe not the most common on some wheels, on the other hand on other wheel types there are only 2 - 3 possibly bias types and the wobble is one of them.

[Myrulet-admin]

When you put it all together, objective of any prediction is to get results as accordion, at some places more stretched then at one very compressed.


I am getting soon 100 vibrating motors; I need a small adjustable timer that can be adjusted in 0.1 sec steps.
 
So guys on the end what would cause highest biase?